And just like that, we BLEW through 10,000 cases. I started writing this yesterday morning (Friday). Thursday morning we were at ~9,000 cases. We smashed through 10k, and actually landed at 15k by the time I got lunch yesterday. This morning, we're at almost 20k. That's some explosive amplification.
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Lower right hand corner is that daily count graph. I actually don't think we can do stats just on the US or a specific state. I'll let the first paragraph above speak for itself. We went up by 50% in 24 hours, doubled in 48 hours... Boom
For you Plague Inc. fans, Madagascar has reported the first three cases (This is not me saying the end is nigh!). It looks like there are no reported cases in Botswana, Mali, Libya, Yemen, Turkmenistan... I'm going to emphasize the word "Reported" there.
OK, if you look at that map, and zoom out, so you can see the whole world, something sticks out.
Nope... Not that. Nope... Not that. Yes, amigo, the ocean is HUGE, and we should go there.
Nope, I'm talking about Russia. Weeks ago it was a bit of a joke that Russia had two cases. Two cases. Two cases. Day in and day out, despite having a fair amount of cross border traffic and a far east border condition that would make Trump shit himself (Hint, Russia says there are ~30,000 Chinese living in the Russian Far East. In reality, pretty much everyone agrees that the number is at least 10x higher). To say that border is porous would be an understatement.
Russia publicly started their quarantine program in February:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-russia-evacuation/russians-start-two-week-virus-quarantine-after-return-from-wuhan-idUSKBN1ZZ112
Hey, comrade, look! TASS:
https://tass.com/society/1117121
I love the headline: Coronavirus can't spread beyond quarantined health camp...
Oooookay!
This Google Search is kind of hysterical:
https://www.google.com/search?q=russian+quarantine+rumors&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS849US849&sxsrf=ALeKk00HCMISgCWsP-zyJNAJvV6OxhfmYg%3A1584797075244&source=lnt&tbs=cdr%3A1%2Ccd_min%3A3%2F1%2F2020%2Ccd_max%3A1%2F1%2F2020&tbm=
OK, hysterical is the wrong word. This one is tragic. Imagine finding out you are pregnant, in quarantine, in a country that is denying you exist:
https://apnews.com/0f0d815ef0be8eb6809babd542620ff4
Very interesting, there is literally no mention of the number of people quarantined, sick, or otherwise within Russia.
This article, two weeks later, talks about violently deporting 88 people who were quarantined but violating that quarantine (If you have to conduct a raid to get your deportee, I'm going to classify that as violent. Unfortunately, I have some experience in that. #NeverAgain).
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-moscow-deportation/russia-to-deport-88-foreigners-for-violating-coronavirus-quarantine-idUSKCN20M252
The article does talk about three Russian nationals receiving treatment, after contracting the 'Rona on a cruise ship, and two recovered Chinese nationals who had previously recovered.
Now, I find it highly implausible that the millions of people in Russia, living with a porous border to the epicenter of the outbreak, have a quantity of cases that you can count on one hand. But perhaps they're subscribing to the theory that if you don't acknowledge the cases they can't hurt you.
All humor aside, denying the problem won't work. Russia may be playing the numbers game, accepting the single digit percentage loss (That's a million people), for a strong image and ability to completely skip the outbreak response. Their population is more isolated than ours, and they'll have a better capability to infringe the rights of that population. It's unpleasant, but a possibility.
Keep an eye on 'em
